Bilge Dice winning odds

[shapu]

I am attempting to create an analysis of winning scores in the Bilge Dice game, to determine not only your chances of winning, but also the chances of a particular score winning the game are (so that if you have, say, a 17, with one die remaining, showing 5, and the opportunity to roll, you'll know whether the odds side with you).

Please PM me or type in this thread a list of all of the winning scores of the games of Bilge Dice that you play. Please, no repeats, and I couldn't care less whether it's your winning score or one of the computer players.

I'll post results later.

[Duke of Earl]

...and I couldn't care less whether it's your winning score or one of the computer players.

That seems like a big mistake to me, especially if you've decided that the game is not based an a pseudorandom die rolling program.... that is, assuming the game isn't weighted. The computers might be at a disadvantage or advantage.

It's also hard (read potentially impossible) to judge these numbers because there is always the question of HOW a person plays the game...

I.E. You start out with 6 sixes. Do you take 4 of them? 1 of them? 2? 3?

[shapu]

I'm hoping that a large sample size from a large number of people will flood out the effects of nonrandom play.

That said, I've got about 60 games under my belt in the last two days, and this is what I've seen:
Avg win score: 21.4
Median score: 21
Mode score: 21
Std. Dev: 1.5

So, what this tells us is that the game's wins, at least as I play, are pretty much normally distributed.

Secondly, if you can get a score of 22 or better, the odds favor you winning (because the median score is 21, the next possible score is 22, and the median represents the actual midpoint of the curve).

Only 20% of winning scores are 23 or better (greater than one standard deviation from the mean). So if you have a 23 or 24, your odds of winning or tying the game are 4 in 5.

As far as I am concerned, this is actually a big help; I've already stopped trying to go for broke and always win. Given this information, I know that a score of 22 or greater grants me, almost automatically, a one in two chance of a win or tie. So I just play for 22.

It's a lot less stressful at least.

EDIT: And to actually get around to answering your first question...
The win score is a win score, regardless of who wins. I've seen nothing to indicate that I am any unluckier or luckier in winning than the computers. They play by similar rules to what we play with, and may actually be handicapped (IE must take all high dies equal to 5 or higher). So if they win, even with that rule, it means that the mean target win score will be LOWER, but your "win space," if you will, the distance on the number line from x to 24, where x is average win, will be HIGHER, thus making your odds of winning with a certain roll beyond that number x higher.

[Fool Hi]

its all random, period... ive gotten tons of 23s/24s, and almost all of them are ties or losses

and other times, i only end up getting a score of 4, yet still win since all the opponents didnt qualify... ah the good times