Kugetsu wrote:
v
theonlysaneone wrote:
You know what, Kuge? Since you're such a big fan of randomness,
VOTE: Kugetsu
VOTE: Laq
Just in case. By the way, your math is wrong. Even if you have three or four people in the mix, you'll still only hit one person, and that person has a 30% chance of being evil.
I'm not being hostile. I'm just voting for you because your math is slightly fallacious.
I feel like *headdesk*headdesk*headdesking* but I'll vote you instead.
Vote: theonlysaneoneFor voting me because my math is "wrong" and failing. o_o
The more baddies in a group of votes, the higher chance that one has to being executed in a random execution. A person is randomly chosen for execution,
if there are 4 baddies in the group of 5 people voted, there is not a 33% chance that one of them is evil (and thus there's not a 33% chance that a baddie will be executed). -_-You failed to take into account the odds of that being the case.
The odds of four out of five people randomly selected being evil =
.33 * .33 * .33 * .33 * .66 * 5 (five different ways that 4/5 people can be evil, IE : oxxxx | xoxxx | xxoxx | xxxox | xxxxo)
= .039 = 4% chance
Then of that you only have a 4/5 chance of one of those 4 being picked (assuming the MC randomly picks between 5 even choices)
= .031 =
3% chance
Then of course if you add in every other combination of number of evil players among a group of 5...
.33 * .66^4 * 5 = .313 = 31% chance * 1/5 =
6.3% chance
.33^2 * .66^3 * 5 = 16% chance * 2/5 =
6.2% chance
.33^3 * .66^2 * 5 = 8% chance * 3/5 =
4.7% chance
.33^5 * 5 =
2% chance
Now, my maths might be a little off (it's been a while since I last did probability) but that should tally to around about
22.2%. Which is less than the 33% chance of somebody being picked and stuck with.
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. Reading the banana section, I can't help but wonder who lost 
.
Sorry Alex.